Valuables in Crisis: What Really Counts

Why values shift in a crisis

Value is relative. It depends on how scarce a good is in relation to demand. In everyday life, a litre of water is practically free and a full tank a matter of course. If supply fails, that reverses: things that were worthless yesterday become a bottleneck – and things that were thought secure (such as the balance on a bank card) suddenly become inaccessible.

The time axis is crucial. People only gradually recognize that a problem has a larger scope. That is why the "value" of goods shifts in stages: first, what bridges the initial shock is hoarded (cash, water, light), later, what offsets prolonged scarcity (medicines, barter goods, skills).

Two very different crisis types must be distinguished. In a supply crisis (e.g. a prolonged power outage), the Swiss franc retains its value – only the goods become scarce. In a currency crisis (hyperinflation, currency collapse) money itself loses its value; then material assets and barter trade matter. For Switzerland, the first case is the realistic preparedness perspective; the second is more of a historical lesson.

Money can become worthless: the example of Venezuela

Venezuela experienced hyperinflation from around 2016 to the end of 2021 – over four years in which prices doubled multiple times per month. At the peak in 2018/2019, annual inflation was in the order of several hundred thousand to over one million per cent (estimates vary widely depending on source – the International Monetary Fund cited roughly 930,000 per cent for 2018, the opposition National Assembly roughly 1.7 million per cent). No exact figure exists; only the magnitude is documented.

In practical terms: cash lost its value faster than it could be spent. The state removed over the years a total of 14 zeros from the currency through three currency reforms (2008, 2018, 2021). People resorted to US dollars – by September 2019, around 50 % of all transactions in the country were conducted in dollars – and to barter (Spanish *trueque*): fish for flour, service for food.

For those wanting to go deeper: journalist William Neuman, long-time Andes correspondent for the New York Times, has documented the collapse in a non-fiction book: *Things Are Never So Bad That They Can't Get Worse: Inside the Collapse of Venezuela* (St. Martin's Press, 2022). It describes hyperinflation, supply shortages and everyday life in economic collapse at first hand.

Context for Switzerland: such a collapse is highly unlikely here – the Swiss franc is considered a stable currency. Venezuela is therefore not a doomsday scenario for daily life, but a lesson that "value" is not fixed. The practical lesson is sober: having some cash at home makes sense (see §3 emergency supplies) – but wealth protection against currency devaluation is a question of financial planning and not the subject of this article.

When everyday goods suddenly become scarce: toilet paper in 2020

State collapse isn't needed for values to shift – a headline is enough. In spring 2020, shelves in Switzerland too were emptied, especially of toilet paper, but also of flour, yeast, pasta, rice, tinned goods and disinfectant. Hefe Schweiz AG produced six times its usual volume in the third week of March.

How severe the wave was is shown by scanner data from Germany's federal statistics office (no published weekly figures per product exist for Switzerland): toilet paper sales in the week of 16 to 22 March 2020 were 211 % above the average of the preceding six months, soap 337 %, disinfectant even 751 % a week earlier. Three weeks later, toilet paper sales were 29 % below normal. Households had therefore not consumed more, just bought earlier.

Migros and Coop stressed that warehouses were full; all food retailers ran a joint advert on 16 March 2020: "Panic buying is completely unnecessary." Switzerland did not officially ration – retailers, in coordination with FONES, prioritised a basic assortment.

Why toilet paper of all things? The mechanics of a panic wave

Factories kept running in 2020. Toilet paper became scarce for several reasons at once: shops and supply chains hold only small stocks (around two to three weeks in the US), the product is bulky and cheap and therefore restocked sparingly, and anyone at home instead of in the office or at school genuinely needs more household rolls. Commercial rolls can't simply be redirected.

Psychology adds to this. The wave isn't caused by a few extreme buyers, but because many households buy a little more at the same time – purchase quantity limits therefore barely help. Images of empty shelves make the scarcity visible and reinforce it. What best explains who hoards is the feeling of threat; personality plays only a small role.

Such waves are short: a study across 54 countries found that panic largely subsided about 7 to 10 days after a lockdown announcement. Without an actual production failure, shortages last days to a few weeks. They last months only in the case of a genuine supply shock – such as infant formula in the US in 2022, when a plant with around 40 % market share went offline.

The pattern isn't new: Japan experienced a toilet-paper panic in 1973 without any paper shortage, China a run on salt in 2011, supposedly protective against radiation (it isn't), Britain empty petrol stations in 2021 without a fuel shortage.

Switzerland in 2022: candles, firewood and power stations

The same pattern showed up in autumn 2022, when a possible electricity shortage was warned about. A large online retailer reported in September 2022, against the same month the year before, power stations up 1581 %, firewood up 406 % and candles up 380 %. Pellets rose in price within a year from around 400 to around 650 francs per tonne. After the fighting around Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, many asked pharmacies for iodine tablets.

The electricity shortage did not happen. The lesson is the same as in 2020: whatever gets mentioned in a warning becomes scarce – not because it's missing, but because everyone buys at the same time.

Scarce in the shop is not the same as valuable

In 2020, toilet paper was occasionally bartered for eggs or paper towels, and offers at extortionate prices appeared online – the platforms deleted them. Toilet paper did not become a real barter good: money kept working, and within a few weeks the shelf was full again.

In long crises, other goods had barter value: cigarettes and tobacco, alcohol, tinned food, candles, fuel, eggs and staple food. What they have in common is that they are durable, uniform, divisible and sought after almost everywhere – and that they aren't reproduced within a few weeks. Barter value also only arises once money stops working or shops stay empty permanently. How barter, commodity money and other systems then work is explained in the article "Alternative Trade Systems in a Crisis."

Switzerland has already been through this: stockpiling and rationing 1939-1948

On 5 April 1939, the federal Department of Public Economy called on households to build a two-month stock. At the outbreak of war, a sales freeze followed from 28 August to 29 October 1939: important foodstuffs could no longer be sold, and households lived off their stocks until rationing took effect. The stock was therefore the bridge – the direct forerunner of today's emergency supply.

At the same time, hoarding was banned. A Federal Council decree of 1 September 1939 targeted "hoarding, profiteering, black-market and chain transactions"; banned, among other things, was "buying up goods domestically, stockpiling domestic goods, anything beyond normal ongoing needs." Preparedness beforehand was welcomed, stockpiling afterwards was banned.

Rationing of flour, rice, oil and fat lasted until the end of June 1948. Up to 700 million coupons were in circulation nationwide each month; they only conferred a right to buy, and payment continued to be made in francs. The meal coupon, valid without a time limit and divisible down to a quarter, became a kind of second currency, and the federal government allowed exchange between coupon types. Despite the "Battle for Cultivation" campaign, an average Zurich consumer in 1945 had only around 1977 instead of the required 2160 calories per day.

When eggs were freed from rationing in February 1946, Migros sold up to 200,000 eggs a day instead of 12,500 – even the end of a shortage triggers a buying wave.

The shift in values over time

The longer a crisis lasts, the more what is needed shifts. Roughly and as a plausible illustration (not an official forecast): in the first hours and days, what bridges the shock matters – cash in small denominations (because ATMs and card terminals fail in a power outage), drinking water, light and batteries, fuel and a battery-powered radio for information.

After days to weeks, cooking facilities, hygiene, a reliable energy source and replacements for perishables move to the fore. After weeks to months, medicines and medical care, barter goods and practical skills (repair, cooking, provisioning) matter most – things that cannot be bought quickly.

The exact sequence in the timeline (§5a) is an experience-based illustration, not a ranking published by an authority. Individual building blocks are documented (e.g. that cash becomes important in a power outage because card payment fails); the temporal sequence is a plausible synthesis to help you plan your stock more deliberately.

What this means for your preparedness

Official Swiss preparedness already covers the early phases. The Federal Office for National Economic Supply (FONES) recommends an emergency stock for about one week: among other things 9 litres of drinking water per person, shelf-stable food, a battery-powered radio with spare batteries, torch and candles, toilet paper and soap, personal medicines and enough cash in small notes to pay for a week's shopping and, if necessary, a tank of fuel in cash. That is the concrete, sober answer to the abstract value shift.

Almost everything that became scarce in 2020 and 2022 is already on this list. But the stock only helps if you stay home during the wave: a Swiss study by Agroscope found that households who already held an emergency stock beforehand were, if anything, more likely to buy extra during the 2020 lockdown. At the same time, almost half the population (48 %) has too little stock or none at all. Preparedness therefore means both: building the stock in advance and not buying extra during the event.

For beginners: start with the official weekly stock (water, shelf-stable food, radio, cash, medicines). With that you are well equipped for the most common and likely situations – power outage, supply disruption. Nothing more is needed to start.

Expert tip: think in time horizons rather than product lists. For the late phases, deliberately check what cannot be replaced quickly in your household: prescription-only regular medicines (discuss reserve stock with your doctor), spare glasses, special food, spare parts. Barter goods and skills are not a replacement for basic stock, but a supplement for long crises. Keep cash in small denominations – in an event, no one can change large notes.

Common misconceptions

• "I have money, so I am provided for" – money is useless if ATMs and card terminals are without power or shelves are empty. Value arises from availability, not from account balance.
• Only go shopping at the first sign of a crisis – then the shelves are already empty (Corona 2020). Preparedness only works if it is already there.
• Only think about the first phase (water, light) and forget medicines, hygiene and longer-lasting solutions – precisely these become hardest to replace in long crises.
• Keep cash only in large notes – in an event, no one can change them; small denominations count.
• Derive an investment "strategy" from the Venezuela or hyperinflation example (gold, crypto, foreign currency as speculation). That is financial planning, not emergency stock – and not the topic of this article.
• Hoard barter goods instead of covering basic needs – bartering is a phenomenon of long crises, not the starting point of preparedness.
• Stock up out of fear rather than plan deliberately – panic buying creates the scarcity you fear.
• Buy extra during the wave despite a full stock – that's exactly what many well-prepared households did in 2020 (Agroscope). The stock only helps if you then stay home.
• Hoard toilet paper or other panic goods as "trade currency" – they lose their value as soon as the supply catches up.

Timeline of value shifts

Facts verified through two independent research efforts (2026-07-04); only consistent information adopted. Venezuela peak rate only as order of magnitude (sources vary widely).

Frequently asked questions

Further links

• FONES – Smart Provision, Emergency Stock
• Alertswiss – Emergency Stock
• Wikipedia – Hyperinflation in Venezuela
• St. Martin's Press – Neuman book
• Luzerner Zeitung – toilet paper as symbol of lockdown
• Guide: Setting up emergency supplies Practical implementation of preparedness
• Finance: Alternative Trade Systems in a Crisis Barter, commodity money, WIR, hawala and escrow explained
• Guide: Surviving a power outage Most common early-phase crisis
• Guide: Packing emergency bag Valuables and cash for swift departure
• Finance: The AI bubble at market Related finance article
• Guide: Gold and precious metals as crisis reserve Physical precious metals put soberly into context
• Situation overview Current hazards and event situation