SITUATION

Situation

Current hazards and warnings from official feeds — with risk rating, map and links to matching guides.

As of 2026-10-11: official warning level 3 of 5: Wildfire (Kanton Schwyz), Flood danger level 1 of 5, Solar storm scale 0 of 5 – Situation elevated.

HighOverall situation

Overall situation

High

Heuristic overall estimate from several indicators – not a forecast and not investment advice.

What drives this assessment?
  • Natural gas Europe (TTF) high
  • Brent crude high
  • WTI crude high
  • Swiss electricity price (H4) medium

Situation indicators

Energy

Brent crude

125.44 USD/barrel

Alert level: high Trend: falling

Brent crudeBrent crude: historical trend EIA · As of 2026-10-06
What does this value mean?

Brent is the benchmark price for crude oil, on which petrol, diesel and heating-oil prices in Switzerland depend. A sharp rise makes filling up and heating noticeably more expensive within weeks; historically, oil price shocks stood at the start of waves of inflation and recessions. (EIA)

Brent crude, Europe spot price (FOB). Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), series RBRTE, on business days; U.S. federal government publications are in the public domain. Colour by percentile of the last ten years: green ≤ 25th, orange middle, red ≥ 75th percentile. The ten-year window is our convention, not an official threshold. It spans a full market cycle (2016 low, 2020 crash, 2022 peak); the series back to 1987 would be in nominal dollars and would make today's prices look permanently high.

Information/situational overview, not investment advice.

WTI crude

96.24 USD/barrel

Alert level: high Trend: rising

WTI crudeWTI crude: historical trend EIA · As of 2026-10-06
What does this value mean?

WTI is the US benchmark price for crude oil and complements Brent: when the two diverge, that points to regional dislocations in energy markets. For Swiss end prices, Brent is what primarily counts — WTI shows whether a shock is global or local. (EIA)

WTI crude, Cushing (Oklahoma) spot price, FOB. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), series RWTC, on business days; U.S. federal government publications are in the public domain. Colour by percentile of the last ten years: green ≤ 25th, orange middle, red ≥ 75th percentile. The ten-year window is our convention, not an official threshold. It spans a full market cycle (2016 low, 2020 crash, 2022 peak); the series back to 1987 would be in nominal dollars and would make today's prices look permanently high.

Information/situational overview, not investment advice.

Natural gas Europe (TTF)

672 Index

Alert level: high Trend: rising

Natural gas Europe (TTF)Natural gas Europe (TTF): historical trend SFOE / energiedashboard.ch · As of 2026-10-09
What does this value mean?

Switzerland imports all of its natural gas, almost entirely via the EU market — which is why the European TTF price is decisive, not the US price. When the TTF rises, gas heating becomes more expensive directly; because gas-fired power plants often set the electricity price in Europe, wholesale electricity prices usually follow suit. During the 2022 crisis, the TTF rose to over 300 €/MWh — more than ten times the normal level. (European Commission COM(2022) 668)

European natural-gas wholesale price TTF (front month), indexed (base 100). Source SFOE energy dashboard (open government data, free with attribution), on business days. For Switzerland, the European TTF is decisive, not the US price (Henry Hub). Colour by percentile of its own history: green ≤ 25th, orange middle band, red ≥ 75th percentile.

Information/situational overview, not investment advice.

EU gas storage level

74 %

Alert level: medium Trend: rising

EU gas storage levelEU gas storage level: historical trend SFOE / energiedashboard.ch · As of 2026-10-09
What does this value mean?

Switzerland has no gas storage of its own and depends entirely on the European network. If EU storage is poorly filled before winter, heating costs rise, along with the risk of calls to save energy, up to rationing for industry and households. (AGSI/GIE storage data)

Fill level of EU gas storage as a percentage of capacity (EU aggregate). Source SFOE energy dashboard (open government data, free with attribution), daily; data lag by a few days. A low level is the supply risk, especially in winter. Colour by the percentile of its own history: green ≤ 25th, orange middle band, red ≥ 75th percentile.

Information/situational overview, not investment advice.

Electricity consumption Switzerland

149 GWh

Outdated: the source has not published a new value since 2026-08-31. The last known value is shown.

Alert level: low Trend: flat

Electricity consumption SwitzerlandElectricity consumption Switzerland: historical trend SFOE / energiedashboard.ch · As of 2026-08-31
What does this value mean?

High national consumption shows load pressure on the grid — in winter it coincides with Switzerland's dependence on imports. An electricity shortage is rated the country's greatest risk in the national risk analysis, ahead of pandemics. (SFOE/Swissgrid; FOCP risk analysis 2020)

National electricity consumption of Switzerland in gigawatt-hours per day. Source SFOE energy dashboard (open government data, free with attribution) based on Swissgrid, daily; data lag by a few days. Colour by the percentile of its own history: green ≤ 25th, orange middle band, red ≥ 75th percentile.

Information/situational overview, not investment advice.

Market & crisis gauges

Market stress in the euro area (CISS)

0.017 Index

Alert level: low Trend: flat

Market stress in the euro area (CISS)Market stress in the euro area (CISS): historical trend ECB (CISS) · As of 2026-10-08
What does this value mean?

The value says how strained the European financial system currently is — not how a single stock exchange is doing. If it rises persistently, credit becomes more expensive and scarcer: that hits mortgages, corporate financing and pension fund assets, and in a genuine banking crisis payment transactions too. For Switzerland the euro area is the closest yardstick — more than half of our imports come from there. In the crises of 2008, 2011/12 and 2020 the value lay in the top tenth of its history. A single high day means nothing; a week in the red zone is the moment to check your cash reserve and your payment alternatives. (European Central Bank; calculation by the ECB, taken over by us unchanged)

The European Central Bank's CISS (Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress) condenses stress measures from five market segments — money market, bonds, equities, foreign exchange and financial intermediaries — into a single number between 0 (calm) and 1 (systemic crisis). We take the daily SS_CIN series for the euro area unchanged; no calculation of our own takes place. Source: European Central Bank. What is measured is the euro area — NOT Switzerland and NOT US stock market volatility: this card does not replace the former VIX like for like, it measures the same thing in a different place. Colour by percentile of the series' own history (series from 1980): green ≤ 25th, orange middle, red ≥ 75th percentile. If the source delivers no new value for more than 30 days, the ingestion records an error instead of carrying the old state forward.

Information/situational overview, not investment advice.

Currencies & purchasing power

US dollar / franc

0.8311 CHF per USD

informational Trend: falling

US dollar / francUS dollar / franc: historical trend ECB (reference rate, own calculation) · As of 2026-10-09
What does this value mean?

Shows the franc's purchasing power against the US dollar. A rapidly strengthening franc is typical of crisis phases (flight to safe havens): imports and purchases abroad get cheaper, exporters and tourism come under pressure. The dollar is also the invoicing currency for oil, gas, wheat and metals — a strong franc dampens imported price surges, a weak one amplifies them. For preparedness, the speed of the movement matters more than the level. (European Central Bank, own calculation; information, does not feed into the crisis score)

Own calculation: EUR/CHF ÷ EUR/USD. The European Central Bank publishes its reference rates exclusively per euro and keeps no US dollar/franc rate; we form it as a cross rate from two ECB series. Source of the input data: European Central Bank (fixing at 14:15 CET); the combination is ours. As a result the value deviates slightly from rates with a different fixing time — by about 0.2 % in the median against the noon rate of the US central bank. Deliberately kept as pure information: colourless, no contribution to the crisis score.

Information/situational overview, not investment advice.

Euro / franc

0.9313 CHF per EUR

informational Trend: falling

Euro / francEuro / franc: historical trend ECB (reference rate) · As of 2026-10-09
What does this value mean?

Shows the franc's purchasing power against the euro. A rapidly strengthening franc is typical of crisis phases (flight to safe havens): imports and purchases abroad get cheaper, exporters and tourism come under pressure. The franc shock of 15 January 2015 is the yardstick for how fast that can happen — in a single morning. For preparedness, the speed of the movement matters more than the level. (European Central Bank; information, does not feed into the crisis score)

Daily euro reference rate of the European Central Bank (fixing at 14:15 CET), taken over unchanged — no calculation of our own. Source: European Central Bank. The series goes back to 1999. A reference rate is a snapshot value, not a tradable rate: your bank applies mark-ups and mark-downs. Deliberately kept as pure information — the card stays colourless and does not feed into the crisis score.

Information/situational overview, not investment advice.

Yuan / franc

0.1242 CHF per CNY

informational Trend: falling

Yuan / francYuan / franc: historical trend ECB (reference rate, own calculation) · As of 2026-10-09
What does this value mean?

Shows the franc's purchasing power against the Chinese yuan. China is the origin of a large share of our consumer goods, electronics and spare parts — including much of what sits in an emergency supply: torches, batteries, solar panels, radio sets. A weaker franc makes exactly those purchases more expensive, with months of delay via supply contracts. The direction over weeks matters more than the daily level. (European Central Bank, own calculation; information, does not feed into the crisis score)

Own calculation: EUR/CHF ÷ EUR/CNY. The European Central Bank publishes its reference rates exclusively per euro and keeps no yuan/franc rate; we form it as a cross rate from two ECB series. Source of the input data: European Central Bank (fixing at 14:15 CET); the combination is ours. Deliberately kept as pure information: colourless, no contribution to the crisis score.

Information/situational overview, not investment advice.

Supply

World food prices (FAO)

136.0 Index

informational Trend: rising

World food prices (FAO)World food prices (FAO): historical trend FAO (CC BY 4.0) · As of 2026-09-01
What does this value mean?

Rising world market prices reach Swiss shelves damped and delayed — but they do reach them. More important than the price is what high values trigger elsewhere: in 2008 and 2011 price peaks were followed by export bans from several producing countries and by unrest; supply chains react faster than shop prices. A persistently high index is the moment to top up your emergency supply while choice and price are still normal — not when the shelf is empty. (FAO, CC BY 4.0; information, does not feed into the crisis score)

The FAO Food Price Index measures world market prices of five food groups (meat, dairy, cereals, oils, sugar), weighted by export shares; index base 2014-2016 = 100, monthly, series from 1990. Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), used under the CC BY 4.0 licence. The index measures world market commodity prices in US dollars, not Swiss shop prices: border protection cushions strongly here (in 2022/23 food prices rose by 15.5 % in the euro area and by a good 5 % in Switzerland). That is why the card is deliberately colourless and does not contribute to the crisis score — it is an early indicator, not a price statement. The data lag by about a month. Since 07.08.2026 it replaces the previously used index of the International Monetary Fund; the two series are kept separate because of their different index bases.

Information/situational overview, not investment advice.

Drought: official danger level

4 Level

Alert level: high Trend: flat

Drought: official danger levelDrought: official danger level: historical trend FOEN / MeteoSwiss · As of 2026-10-11
What does this value mean?

Drought is the danger that arrives most slowly and acts most broadly: it hits drinking water catchments, agriculture, hydropower and cooling water at the same time, and it is the breeding ground for forest and vegetation fires. Because the federal government judges weekly here instead of measuring daily, the value rarely changes — and that is precisely what makes it dependable: if it rises, it is not a daily fluctuation. From level 2 onwards it is worth checking your own water supplies and your care with fire outdoors. At level 4, restrictions like those ordered in the dry summers of 2018 and 2022 are realistic: bans on open fires in and near forests, and bans on irrigation and water abstraction. They are ordered by the cantons and municipalities, not by this map — the map shows the danger, not the rule. (FOEN and MeteoSwiss, drought warning map)

We show the highest drought danger level currently in force anywhere in Switzerland — deliberately not an average: a single region at high danger remains a high danger, even if things are calm elsewhere. The basis is the federal government's official drought warning map (layer ch.bafu.trockenheitswarnkarte) with 38 hydrological warning regions. The level is NOT a calculation of ours: specialists at the FOEN and MeteoSwiss assess the situation weekly, evaluating precipitation totals, soil moisture and discharge or water level together. The official scale assigns three levels to drought — 1 (no or low danger), 2 (moderate danger) and 4 (high danger); levels 3 (considerable danger) and 5 (very high danger) are not used for drought. Our colours follow exactly that scale: level 1 green, level 2 orange, level 4 red. No threshold of our own is mixed in. The series starts without history because the service only supplies the current state; colour and classification are nevertheless available from the very first reading.

Information/situational overview, not investment advice.

Groundwater: share of unusually low stations

53 %

informational Trend: flat

Groundwater: share of unusually low stationsGroundwater: share of unusually low stations: historical trend FOEN / NAQUA · As of 2026-10-11
What does this value mean?

A low groundwater level does NOT mean the tap will run dry tomorrow — Switzerland has reserves, interconnected networks and lake water treatment plants, and even in the dry summers of 2018 and 2022 the restrictions remained local. As a daily reading the figure is therefore worthless: groundwater moves in weeks and months, not in hours. That is precisely where its value lies — it is a lead indicator. A dry winter shows up here long before it arrives in summer as a usage restriction, whereas our other water indicators (Rhine, Aare, flooding) only react within days. If the share climbs over months, that is the moment to check your own water supplies. How serious the overall situation is is stated by the official level on the "Drought" card — this figure only shows how unusual the state of the monitoring network currently is. (FOEN, NAQUA monitoring network)

The value is NOT a level in metres but the share of measuring stations at an unusually low level: the percentage of stations whose current groundwater level or spring discharge lies below the 10th percentile of the 1991–2020 reference period — each station measured against its own history, not against that of the others. Source National Groundwater Monitoring NAQUA (module QUANT) of the FOEN, around 75 stations, recalculated daily. We filter out the two river stations contained in the official dataset (that is surface water); stations without data count neither in the numerator nor in the denominator. Over the reference period the expected value is 10 % by construction. This card deliberately carries NO colour and does not enter the situation assessment: the figure measures statistical unusualness, not water scarcity — a station below its 10th percentile may still hold plenty of water, and in a dry summer very many stations are low at the same time. Colour thresholds of our own once stood here; on 5 August 2026 they showed 55 % and therefore red, while the FOEN reported "normal to low" conditions across Switzerland in its groundwater bulletin of the same day. How dangerous the situation is is therefore stated by the official level on the "Drought" card; here the percentage remains an honest piece of additional information. The series starts without history because the dataset only supplies the current state.

Information/situational overview, not investment advice.

Switzerland: macro & water

Swiss electricity price (H4)

26.87 cents/kWh

Alert level: medium Trend: falling

Swiss electricity price (H4)Swiss electricity price (H4): historical trend ElCom (LINDAS) · As of 2027-01-01
What does this value mean?

The official median electricity price for households shows how heavily energy costs weigh on budgets. Sharp increases such as in 2023 (+27 %) hit tenants and owners directly and are a lagging indicator of previous energy crises. (ElCom)

Swiss electricity price (H4). Source ElCom via LINDAS SPARQL (terms_open licence), annual. Colour by percentile of the series' own history: green ≤ 25th, orange middle, red ≥ 75th percentile.

Information/situational overview, not investment advice.

Rhine discharge (Basel)

377 m³/s

Alert level: high Trend: falling

Rhine discharge (Basel)Rhine discharge (Basel): historical trend Canton of Basel-Stadt (data.bs) / FOEN · As of 2026-10-10
What does this value mean?

Around 22 % of Switzerland's fuel and heating-oil imports come via the Rhine. In low water, ships sail with only 30–40 % of their cargo — transport costs multiply and petrol and diesel become noticeably more expensive (2026: diesel wholesale cost +30 Rp./l). In high water, large-scale shipping is shut down entirely. (Avenergy Suisse 2026; Swiss Rhine Ports)

Rhine discharge at Basel as a daily mean (m³/s). Source Canton of Basel-Stadt (data.bs, CC0 licence) on a FOEN basis, daily. The daily mean neutralises the hydropeaking swings from power-plant operation. Colour by fixed statistical thresholds (not by percentile): low water from around 460 m³/s and high water from around 2500 m³/s count as critical — both extremes hinder Rhine shipping.

Information/situational overview, not investment advice.

Aare discharge (Untersiggenthal)

214 m³/s

Alert level: high Trend: falling

Aare discharge (Untersiggenthal)Aare discharge (Untersiggenthal): historical trend FOEN / existenz.ch · As of 2026-10-10
What does this value mean?

The Aare collects water from almost half of Switzerland, including the Reuss and the Limmat. Little water means less electricity from the run-of-river power plants along the river and less cooling water — a lot of water means flood risk for the Swiss Plateau (record: 2007). (FOEN gauging station Untersiggenthal/Stilli)

Aare discharge at Untersiggenthal/Stilli (station 2205) as a daily mean (m³/s). Source FOEN hydrological data via existenz.ch, daily; the daily mean smooths out power-plant fluctuations. Together with the Reuss and the Limmat, the Aare drains almost half of Switzerland. Colour by fixed statistical thresholds (not by percentile): both very low and very high water count as critical.

Information/situational overview, not investment advice.

Aare temperature (below Beznau)

19.5 °C

Alert level: low Trend: falling

Aare temperature (below Beznau)Aare temperature (below Beznau): historical trend FOEN / existenz.ch · As of 2026-10-10
What does this value mean?

From 25 °C Aare temperature, the Beznau nuclear power plant must sharply cut output or shut down — as happened in 2018, 2025 and in July 2026. Beznau supplies around 8 % of Swiss electricity; this mark is therefore a direct early indicator of a tight power situation in a hot summer. (Waters Protection Ordinance; SFOE ruling 2019)

Daily maximum temperature of the Aare at FOEN station 2113 "Aare – Felsenau, K.W. Klingnau (Unterwasser)", about 4,7 km downstream of the Beznau nuclear power plant (after cooling-water mixing). Source FOEN via existenz.ch, daily. This is an indicator at the nearest official gauging station, NOT a compliance indicator for the power plant. Colour by thresholds: red from 25,0 °C (official, Waters Protection Ordinance), orange from 24,0 °C as our own declared early-warning convention (not official).

Information/situational overview, not investment advice.

Flood danger level

1 Level

Alert level: low Trend: flat

Flood danger levelFlood danger level: historical trend FOEN Hydrology (LINDAS) · As of 2026-10-11
What does this value mean?

Shows the highest official flood danger level on Swiss rivers and lakes. From level 3, local flooding, road closures and evacuations threaten; from level 4, large-scale damage — as in the 2005 flood, with around 3 billion francs in damage. (FOEN danger levels 1–5)

Highest official flood danger level (1–5) across all Swiss river gauging stations. Source FOEN Hydrology via the Confederation's LINDAS service. The nationwide maximum is decisive. Colour by the official scale (not by percentile): green level 1, orange level 2, red level 3–5.

Information/situational overview, not investment advice.

Space weather

Solar storm (G/S/R scale)

0 Scale

Alert level: low Trend: falling

  • R 0
  • S 0
  • G 0
Solar storm (G/S/R scale)Solar storm (G/S/R scale): historical trend NOAA SWPC (public domain) · As of 2026-10-11
What does this value mean?

The NOAA scales measure geomagnetic storms, radiation and radio disturbances. Strong storms (from level 3) can disrupt GPS and radio; extreme events can damage transformers and power grids on a large scale — the scenario behind the solar storm chapter. (NOAA SWPC)

Solar-storm situation as the highest of the three NOAA scales G (power grid), S (radiation) and R (radio blackout), each level 0–5. Source NOAA SWPC (US agency, public domain), observed daily values. Colour by the official scale (not by percentile): green 0–1, orange 2, red 3–5.

Information/situational overview, not investment advice.

Inflation (consumer price index): current value directly at the Federal Statistical Office – FSO – Swiss consumer price index

As of: · Next update ~00:25 CEST · Ongoing alerts verified: 67

  • Alertswiss / Polyalert (BABS) current
  • BAFU Trockenheitswarnkarte current
  • BAFU Waldbrand-Warnung current
  • Eidgenössisches Nuklearsicherheitsinspektorat (ENSI) current
  • Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System current
  • BAFU Hydrologie / Hochwasser (LINDAS) current
  • MeteoAlarm Wetterwarnungen Schweiz current
  • Schweizerischer Erdbebendienst (SED/ETH) current
  • SLF Lawinenbulletin (WSL-Institut für Schnee- und Lawinenforschung SLF) no data

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Legend & explanation

calm medium high

Each indicator is ranked against its own history: green ≤ 25th percentile, orange in the middle, red ≥ 75th percentile.

The situation orb forms a weighted mean of the per-indicator stress (direction-aware; currencies excluded, stale values omitted) and shades continuously from green (calm) to dark red (critical).

Heuristic overall estimate from several indicators – not a forecast and not investment advice.